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Fed Hikes Hold To Yesterday’s Modest Softening

STIR FUTURES
  • Relatively little change overnight for Fed Funds implied hikes, largely keeping to yesterday’s net move lower on weak US data.
  • That included little reaction to Kashkari (’23 voter) late yesterday keeping to his hawkish stance in the last scheduled Fedspeak pre-Jackson Hole: it will be a long time before policymakers must debate any tradeoff with its full employment goal albeit noting that the inflation impact of strong USD may affect Fed policy.
  • Sitting at 65bps for the Sept FOMC (67.5bps pre-data) before a cumulative 125bps to Dec and 140bps to a peak of 3.74% in Mar’23 (3.78% pre-data). 39bps of cuts thereafter to end-23, from 35bps this time yesterday.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rate at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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