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Fed Hikes Seen Peaking At 3.62% Before 60bps Of Cuts To End-23

STIR FUTURES
  • Implied hikes pull back ever so slightly from highs touched post-CPI but still see 82bp for Jul (+8bp on the day), 149bp for Sep (+17bp) and 201bp for Dec (+18bp) according to FOMC-dated Fed Funds.
  • The peak technically is seen with 203bps of hikes to 3.615% (+17bp) for the Feb’23 meeting, closer but still off the high of 3.72% seen just prior to the Jun FOMC.
  • It’s followed by 60bp of cuts to end-2023 having most recently been in the low 50s.

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