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Fed Implied Rates Push Higher But Near-Term Meetings Await NFPs

STIR
  • After yesterday’s bear steepening for Treasuries, it’s the front ends turn to lead the sell-off today. It’s led by a decent push higher in 2024 implied Fed rates even if near-term meeting expectations remain stubbornly at levels seen since the Jul 26 FOMC decision, awaiting today’s payrolls report.
  • Cumulative hikes: +4.5bp in Sep (+0.5bp), +10bp in Nov to 5.43% terminal (+0.5bp)
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 2bp to Dec (from 4bp yesterday close), 53bp to Jun’24 (from 58bp) and 120bp to Dec’24 (from 127bp).
  • No scheduled Fedspeak today with Bostic (’24 voter) and Bowman (voter) next up on Monday, with Bowman of note having last spoken on Jun 22.

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