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Fed Implied Rates Softer After Weak European Service PMIs

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower overnight in spillover from softer than expected European service PMIs. It comes ahead of today’s preliminary PMIs for the US along with preliminary benchmark revisions for the establishment survey.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33%: +3bp Sep (-1bp on the day), +11bp Nov (-1bp) and with Dec still close with +9.5bp (-1bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 1.5bp to Dec’23, 43bp to Jun’24 (from 41bp) and 107bp to Dec’24 (from 104bp).
  • No scheduled Fedspeak today before Jackson Hole proceedings kick into gear. In case missed yesterday, the director-level discount rate discussions, separate to Fed Funds target discussions, hinted that the “couple” of FOMC participants noted in the minutes of the July 26 FOMC decision who favored holding rates steady, or could have supported such a proposal, were potentially Williams and Bostic judging by NY and Atlanta Fed directors (not presidents) favoring no change.

Source: Bloomberg

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