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Fed Path Chips Away At Friday’s Trimming Of Cut Expectations

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are modestly higher from Friday’s close for the next few upcoming meetings but then also slightly lower for later into 2024.
  • There is now 7.5bp of tightening eyed over the next two meetings before 80bp of cuts to end-2024 (the move unwinding about half of Friday’s trimming of cut expectations) whilst the first cut from current levels is seen back in July rather than June from earlier last week.
  • After last week’s heavy Fedspeak, it’s a much quieter day today with only Gov. Cook (voter) on the slate, giving introductory remarks at 0850ET at the Fed’s conference on nontraditional data which likely limits direct mon pol relevance.
  • Her latest comments have focused on financial stability on Nov 6 & 8 (rising geopol tensions pose market risks, monitoring vulnerabilities at nonbanks) and she has generally given very little monetary policy-focused remarks since June.

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