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Fed Priced For A Further 8.5 Hikes This Year

STIR FUTURES
  • Further supply side disruption fears from a two-stage lockdown in Shanghai have helped push Fed hike expectations even higher.
  • This follows from an increasing number of analysts calling for multiple 50bp hikes on Friday, the pick being Citi looking for four consecutive 50bp hikes.
  • Today’s adjustment has been in 2H22, struggling to price much more over immediate meetings.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures for May and June meetings are unchanged from late Fri with 44bps for May and 88bps for June. The latter implies a 21% chance of 75bps, 57% of 100bps and 22% of 125bps over the two meetings.
  • Further out, cumulative hikes for Dec are up another 10bps to a new high of 216bps.

Source: Bloomberg

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