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Fed Rate Path Drifts Higher, Powell & Jefferson In Focus

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have extended yesterday’s net increase, only just fully pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 5.5bp Jun, 13.5bp Jul, 25bp Sep and 43bp Dec.


  • Today’s heavy Fedspeak sees Chair Powell in focus but with Vice Chair Jefferson also of note. Powell last spoke earlier this month at a Stanford event prior to latest payrolls and CPI reports, whilst this will be Jefferson’s first appearance in almost two months.
  • 0900ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) keynote address (text, no Q&A). He last spoke Feb 22, warning of easing too much on improving inflation whilst seeing it appropriate to cut later this year.
  • 1230ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) moderates event with BdF’s Villeroy. Format should limit US mon pol content and he spoke yesterday, saying he doesn’t see recent inflation data as a turning point.
  • 1300ET – Barkin (’24) on economic outlook (no text). He has already spoken since US CPI, on Apr 11 saying that it’s smart to take time to see if inflation slows and that not where we need to be but headed in the right direction.
  • 1315ET – Chair Powell in moderated Q&A with BoC’s Macklem (no text). He last spoke Apr 3, saying the recent data do not materially change the overall picture, with Q&A focusing on supply side matters. It’s too soon to say if recent inflation data more than a bump and he doesn’t expect cuts until more confidence on inflation.
  • 1630ET – Collins (non-voter) repeats a speech from last week
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have extended yesterday’s net increase, only just fully pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 5.5bp Jun, 13.5bp Jul, 25bp Sep and 43bp Dec.


  • Today’s heavy Fedspeak sees Chair Powell in focus but with Vice Chair Jefferson also of note. Powell last spoke earlier this month at a Stanford event prior to latest payrolls and CPI reports, whilst this will be Jefferson’s first appearance in almost two months.
  • 0900ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) keynote address (text, no Q&A). He last spoke Feb 22, warning of easing too much on improving inflation whilst seeing it appropriate to cut later this year.
  • 1230ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) moderates event with BdF’s Villeroy. Format should limit US mon pol content and he spoke yesterday, saying he doesn’t see recent inflation data as a turning point.
  • 1300ET – Barkin (’24) on economic outlook (no text). He has already spoken since US CPI, on Apr 11 saying that it’s smart to take time to see if inflation slows and that not where we need to be but headed in the right direction.
  • 1315ET – Chair Powell in moderated Q&A with BoC’s Macklem (no text). He last spoke Apr 3, saying the recent data do not materially change the overall picture, with Q&A focusing on supply side matters. It’s too soon to say if recent inflation data more than a bump and he doesn’t expect cuts until more confidence on inflation.
  • 1630ET – Collins (non-voter) repeats a speech from last week