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Fed Rate Path Holds Higher But Still Nearly 75bps Of Cuts

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are off overnight highs but have still pushed on from yesterday’s close.
  • 21bp for next week’s FOMC (+1bp), having not sustainably fully priced a 25bp hike this week, before a cumulative 39bp to a peak 4.96% for May (+3.5bp).
  • July and Sept meetings have seen the largest increases on the day (+9/8bp) but a smaller rise in the Dec rate of 4.24% (+4.5bp) broadly maintains 72bps of cuts from peak to year-end after yesterday’s 33bp trimming on First Republic rescue talks and subsequent action from major US banks.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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