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Fed Rate Path Modestly Trims ISM Mfg Slide

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted 0.5-2bp since Friday’s close, but hold most of Friday’s ISM mfg miss-driven decline, especially for meetings further into 2024.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 6.5bp May, 22.5bp Jun, 38bp Jul and 89bp Dec.
  • Gov. Kugler (voter) was last to speak on Friday, but ultimately with limited remarks: she’s optimistic that the disinflation progress will continue and that the Fed is laser-focused on bringing inflation down to 2%.
  • Philly Fed’s Harker (non-voter) at 1100ET provides the sole scheduled Fedspeak today in a blank data docket. It is however on the economic impact of higher education and his comments are likely overshadowed by Chair Powell’s congressional appearances this week. Harker said Feb 22 that we’re close to cutting, just give us a “couple meetings” with his preference beyond that for a steady and slow approach to easing.

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