MNI: US TSY: LOWERS Q3 BORROWING ESTIMATE BY $106B TO $740B

MNI BRIEF: US Treasury Lowers Q3 Borrowing Estimate By $106B

MNI BRIEF: New Powers For UK Fiscal Body As Spending Overshot

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, July 29

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY243.37 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1316 Mon; -1.56% Y/Y

Unemployment Rate Falls, But So Does Job-To-Applicant Ratio

MNI JAPAN JUNE JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 2.5% FROM MAY 2.6%

MNI: UK JUL BRC SHOP PRICES -0.1% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Fed Rate Path Sits Just Above Pre-CPI/Retail Sales Levels

STIR
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates have held the bulk of yesterday’s climb, aided by stronger than expected non-oil import prices. It saw some lift their core PCE estimates (e.g. GS +1bp to 0.26% M/M, JPM +3bps to 0.26% M/M).
  • It leaves a rate path slightly higher than prior to Wednesday’s CPI and retail sales data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 21bp Sep, 30bp Nov and 45bp Dec.
  • Bostic (’24 voter) late yesterday: if the outlook unfolds as he expects, referring to slowly moderating inflation and continued economic momentum, “then it could be appropriate for us to reduce rates toward the end of the year” [he has previously looked at one cut late in the year]. He’s watching May and June inflation to make sure it doesn’t revert higher.
  • Fedspeak ahead looks unlikely to touch on monetary policy.
  • 1015ET – Waller (voter) on payments innovation (text, no Q&A) introduced by Kashkari (non-voter)
  • 1215ET – Daly (’24) commencement speech (text, no Q&A)
162 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have held the bulk of yesterday’s climb, aided by stronger than expected non-oil import prices. It saw some lift their core PCE estimates (e.g. GS +1bp to 0.26% M/M, JPM +3bps to 0.26% M/M).
  • It leaves a rate path slightly higher than prior to Wednesday’s CPI and retail sales data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 21bp Sep, 30bp Nov and 45bp Dec.
  • Bostic (’24 voter) late yesterday: if the outlook unfolds as he expects, referring to slowly moderating inflation and continued economic momentum, “then it could be appropriate for us to reduce rates toward the end of the year” [he has previously looked at one cut late in the year]. He’s watching May and June inflation to make sure it doesn’t revert higher.
  • Fedspeak ahead looks unlikely to touch on monetary policy.
  • 1015ET – Waller (voter) on payments innovation (text, no Q&A) introduced by Kashkari (non-voter)
  • 1215ET – Daly (’24) commencement speech (text, no Q&A)