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Fed Rate Path Treading Water With Multiple Risk Events Eyed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight as they continue to tread water with tomorrow's FOMC decision and a busy week for data ahead.
  • Cumulative cuts: 12.5bp for Mar, 33bp for May, 58bp for Jun and 137bp for Dec.
  • Today’s main interest for Fed pricing is likely in JOLTS and Conf Board consumer confidence. JOLTS quit rates have returned to pre-pandemic averages but openings to the number of unemployed are still elevated on historical basis despite an already sizeable decline.

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