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Fed Rates Awaiting Data Cues

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have moved back close to where they started the US session after tentatively dipping amidst a particularly light docket.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 5bp Jun, 11.5bp Jul, 22bp Sep, 29bp Nov and 40bp Dec.
  • The Dec’24 implied rate at 4.93% is off overnight highs of 4.96%, which tied with record highs for the contract seen after last week’s retail sales strength.
  • Tomorrow sees preliminary PMIs for April, but with greater data interest towards the end of the week with the Q1 advance GDP report (Thu) plus PCE/personal incomes for March (Fri). The FOMC is in media blackout ahead.

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