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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have nudged lower after on balance treading water in yesterday’s holiday-thinned trade, with a miss for Spanish inflation seeing some spillover.
- Pertinent points are a July hike not quite fully priced, whilst the 35bp of cuts from the 5.31% peak leaves only half a cut priced from current levels to year-end.
- Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +13.5bp Jun (-2.5bp from Fri close), +22.5bp Jul (-2bp), +15.5bp Sep (-3.5bp), +2.5bp Nov (-3.5bp), -12.5bp Dec (-4.5bp) and -29bp Jan (-6bp).
- Latest Fedspeak from Goolsbee (’23 voter) on Sunday echoed data dependence, which could limit the impact on Barkin (’24) speaking at 1300ET having already spoken on Thu. Barkin noted that the labor market is quite strong with labor demand for skilled trades still “crazy hot”, but that whilst demand isn’t cold it is cooling, helped in part by some marginal credit tightening.
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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