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Fed Rates Higher As Dovish Fedspeak Threat Passes

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted 1-3bp higher since Fedspeak got under way at 1100ET with Kugler, as whilst Collins in particular leant dovish, it removed a risk of more dovish remarks as she opted for a similar line to Mester with looking for rate cuts later this year.
  • Cumulative cuts: 6bp Mar, 21bp May, 44bp Jun and 122bp Dec.
  • Still to come, Governor Bowman (permanent voter), the most hawkish member on FOMC, who spoke after payrolls on Friday: not yet at point where rate cuts are appropriate, easing financial conditions risk fueling inflation, remain willing to hike if inflation progress stalls, but rate cuts eventually warranted as inflation falls.

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