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Fed Rates Hold Recent Ranges With FOMC Looming

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit modestly lower from Friday’s close, primarily following dovish ECB speak and increased geopolitical tensions over the weekend.
  • It leaves the rate path within recent ranges, with 13.5bp of cumulative cuts for March, 34bp for May, 59bp for June and 136bp for Dec.
  • The Dec’24 implied rate of 3.97% has kept to a rough 3.90-4.02% range in recent sessions, having lifted off levels closer to 3.7% prior to Waller’s Jan 16 comments on not needing to cut as quickly as in past cycles.
  • Today sees a quiet docket before JOLTS tomorrow and Wednesday's ECI/ADP data ahead of the FOMC decision.

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