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Fed Tone Remains Balanced

US TSYS
  • Tsys modestly weaker across the board after the bell - holding inside a narrow session range (TYH4 -3 at 111-06, 111-01 low/111-16.5 high). Curves held steeper most of the day turned flatter late (2s10s -1.150 at -31.170).
  • Light midweek data: MBA Mortgage Applications reported 3.7% earlier, up from -7.2% prior, Trade Balance reported -$62.2B vs. -$62.0B est (-$63.2B prior) wraps up the morning releases.
  • Continued focus on Fed speakers: MN Fed Kashkari popped up in morning trade posited he expects 2-3 25bp cuts this year "seems appropriate".
  • Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said she could not close the door to policy action at any upcoming meetings, including March, “Every meeting is live," Kugler added.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins on Wednesday said waiting until 12-month inflation hits 2% for the central bank to begin cutting interest rates would be waiting too long.
  • Treasury futures pared losses briefly following decent $42B 10Y sale (91282CJZ5) stops 1.2bp through: 4.093% high yield vs. 4.105% WI; 2.56x bid-to-cover steady to prior.
  • Look ahead: Thursday Data Calendar includes Weekly Claims, Fed Speak, 30Y Bond Sale.
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