Final December CPI Data Due Shortly

Reminder that Statistics Poland will release final December CPI data at the top of the hour. Flash readings indicated that headline inflation eased to +6.1% Y/Y (from +6.6%) and +0.1% M/M (from +0.7%) last month. Comments after the release of the updated figures will likely involve estimates of core inflation, with the NBP set to release official data on prices excluding volatile items at 13:00GMT/14:00CET on Tuesday.

• Credit Agricole expect flash readings to be confirmed today, seeing the publication as neutral for the local FX and FI spaces.
• ING noted already this morning that their core CPI forecast is +6.9% Y/Y versus +7.3% in November.
• PKO see a risk of an upward revision to the preliminary reading, noting that a 0.1% M/M increase in prices meant that the annual reading was close to +6.2%. They see core inflation at +6.8%-6.9% Y/Y.
  
• Santander write that "even if (as in the previous two months) the final publication will bring a small upward revision of the 6.1% Y/Y print, it will not fundamentally change the picture."
• Note that last week NBP Governor Glapinski stated that the central bank expects inflation to reach the target band in the coming months before rebounding.