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Final print of quarterly GDP due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
MNI (London)
  • The final print of UK Q3 GDP is due to be released at 7:00GMT.
  • Although this data is quite outdated now, we note that the Q2 print was revised up from 4.8%Q/Q to 5.5%Q/Q which had implications for how close the UK economy was to the pre-Covid peak. This is something that the BOE always notes, but probably isn't enough to really change any MPC member's mind on their future vote. For this reason, today's data is unlikely to have large market implications.
  • Our data team notes that analysts project Q3 GDP to be in line with the previous estimate of 1.3% Q/Q and 6.6% Y/Y. Quarterly growth is therefore predicted to have slowed from Q2’s jump to 5.5%, however remains significantly above the long-run average of 0.3% q/q growth.
  • The main contributors to growth over Q3 have been services which grew by 1.6% in Q3 on the back of hospitality, arts and recreation and health as covid-19 restrictions were eased, whilst retail and wholesale trade fell by 2.5%. Construction and manufacturing declines by 1.5% q/q and 0.3% q/q respectively.
  • Real quarterly GDP remains 2.1% below the pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019.
  • We will also receive the first print of current account data.
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