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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINANCIALS
Scor (SCOR: A-/BBB+) issued a profit warning last night which is seeing both equity and bonds hit this morning. Its index bonds are streaming an average of 18bp wider with equity down over a quarter. Scor is already trading wide of (similarly-rated) Axa, and it had underperformed €IG insurers into this event anyway, so we’d see this as contained but unlikely to revert before seeing fuller results on 30 July, at best.
- Scor issued a one-page profit warning last night indicating a reassessment of reserving, alongside more negative experience variances, meant its Life & Health profits were going to miss consensus. The business was targeted (at 1Q24) to make c.EUR0.5bn of profit (ISR) in FY24 but is going to see a negative c.EUR0.4bn in 2Q24 alone. FY24 net income consensus was just EUR722m so this could easily wipe out all profit this year.
- Solvency II is still (allegedly) going to be above 200% at Jun-24 balance sheet, consensus was previously 217%. So, this is clearly a major equity event, but that level of solvency capital is certainly adequate and only, in our view, impacts equity cashflows.
- The wider question is the laterals to other French life & health companies (likely negative but unquantifiable – largely Axa but it’s far more diversified) alongside the trust and confidence issue in Scor management. Again, unquantifiable.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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