Firmer USD, But Recent Ranges Respected

USD/Asia pairs have gravitated higher, with only USD/THB seeing some downside traction today. We have respected recent ranges though. Equity sentiment has been weaker around the region, led by China and South Korea, which has supported dollar sentiment. Note Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have been closed today. Indonesia and Malaysia remain closed on Monday. Elsewhere the data calendar is light, with Taiwan IP and potentially Thailand trade figures due Monday.

• USD/CNH is back above 6.8900, last near 6.8950, 0.15% weaker in CNH terms for the session. Weaker local equities, off by more than 1%, with the US likely to announce fresh investment curbs weighing at the margin. The CNY fixing was neutral. The FX regulator expects trade surpluses to continue and that CNY expectations remain stable.
• USD/KRW has been biased higher, but spot has found selling interest around the 1330 level, last 1328/29. The 1 month NDF sits close to 1326.50. The first 20-days trade data for April showing continuing headwinds, with export growth to the US slowing. Some onshore analysts are also turning more cautious on the local equity market outlook, amid concerns around heavy retail investor positioning.
• Spot USD/TWD is a touch higher, last just above 30.60, so remaining within recent ranges. Local equities are weaker, -0.70%, as offshore investors sold -$467.5mn of local equities yesterday. Some carry over from the weaker than expected March export orders data from yesterday (-25.7% y/y, -18.6% expected) has likely been evident.
• USD/THB is lower today, back to 34.30/35, around 0.25% stronger in baht terms for the session. This is bucking the generally the firmer USD/Asia trend elsewhere, but likely reflects some catch up to USD weakness post yesterday's onshore close. More broadly, we continue to track a range trade for the pair. On the topside, the 100-day EMA around 34.53, presents a cap on the upside, while dips sub 34.20 have been supported. Portfolio flows have been negative this month across both bonds and equities and may need to firm to bring lower USD/THB levels.