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Free AccessFirming & Flattening Continues Post-Powell
TYH3 operates just shy of its late NY peak, last +0-02+ at 114-22.
- Cash Tsys were 7-14bp richer come the bell on Thursday, with the curve bull flattening.
- This came as the post-Powell move extended, with no pushback in Thursday’s Fedspeak re: Wednesday’s market reaction & softer than expected U.S. data (most notably M/M PCE inflation metrics & the ISM m’fing survey) facilitating the move. Short covering flows provided another input, per several desks.
- A further moderation in rate hike premium embedded into Fed dated OIS also supported the bid, with ~51bp of tightening now priced for this month’s meeting & a terminal rate of ~4.85% now eyed.
- 10s printed at the richest levels since September in the process, with the 2-/10-Year yield spread now sitting just under 10bp off the deepest levels of inversion witnessed during the cycle (Monday’s low in the spread), halting a short daily run of steepening of that curve.
- Chinese COVID matters will likely continue to dominate headline flow during the final Asia-Pac session of the week, while NY hours will be headlined by the latest NFP print (see our full preview of that event here). Fedspeak from Barkin & Evans will supplement that data release.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.