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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INR
USD/INR has slipped in early trade, following the lead of USD/Asia lower. The pair prints at 82.40/45, around 0.30% sub yesterday's closing levels.
- Q4 GDP printed yesterday evening at 4.4% below the expected 4.7%. GDP growth continues to tick lower as the RBIs tightening weighs on the economy. Still, compared to other parts of the region this was still a resilient outcome for the final quarter of lats year.
- Equity outflows by foreign investors have picked up in recent days, with ~$479mn in outflows on Thursday through Monday. This has coincided with the Nifty testing down through the simple 200-day MA (17394). Although, the early tone is firmer today (+0.40%) and the index is back above this point.
- On the wires today we have Feb S&P Global Mfg PMI. There is no estimate, the prior read was 55.4.
- For March as a whole, seasonals for the rupee are firmer. Using the past 2 decades of data, the average drop in USD/INR is March is -0.64%. This may reflect a more positive flow backdrop ahead India's fiscal year end.
- Such a backdrop this year could be used by the RBI to rebuild FX reserves, but it is something to be mindful of.
Fig 1: USD/INR Seasonals - Average Monthly Returns (Past 20 years)
Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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