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First Fed Cut Seen With May FOMC

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower still overnight after yesterday’s dovish Fedspeak from Waller (increasingly confident Fed policy well positioned; if inflation stays at similar readings for three, four or five months could see lower rates). Further moves came ahead of data but were then supported by weaker than expected German regional CPI data.
  • It sees no further tightening priced again, whilst a first cut was fully priced for May earlier (currently 24.5bp cumulative), building to a cumulative 108bp of cuts to year-end. The Dec'24 implied rate has fallen 19bp since just before Waller started speaking.
  • Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’24 voter, retiring June) headlines sole scheduled Fedspeak today on Financial Stability shortly before the Beige Book.

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