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Fitch Not Worried About Colombia Short-Term Fiscal Trajectory

COLOMBIA
  • *FITCH: COLOMBIA WORSE FISCAL VIEW IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A DOWNGRADE
  • *FITCH SAYS IT’S ‘COMFORTABLE’ WITH COLOMBIA’S STABLE OUTLOOK (BBG)
  • The deteriorating fiscal and debt metrics expected for 2024 are in line with the vision of Fitch Ratings, according to a sovereign credit analyst at the agency. The fiscal trajectory is not a reason per se to downgrade the country’s credit rating or outlook, the analyst said in an interview. However, Fitch do note that while they are not worried about this year, “we’re worried about more than the medium term, like 2025 and beyond.
  • General government debt to GDP, currently at 50.8%, will have to post a big jump to levels around 60% to have a negative impact on the rating.
  • Fitch expects the central govt deficit to narrow to 4.5% of GDP next year, which is still relatively high and not enough to stabilize the debt.
  • Govt mid-term fiscal plan the Finance Ministry will present by mid-year will be key to gauge whether the govt will be able to reverse the trend of widening deficits and debt. (BBG)
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