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Fitch Ratings: EU Gas Balanced in 2023 on LNG & Demand Destruction

NATURAL GAS

The EU has a credible strategy to mitigate a cut-off of Russian gas in 2023, contingent on swift adjustments to the supply and demand balance according to Fitch Ratings.

  • They indicate a balanced EU gas market, assuming 20% of Russian pipeline capacity from August 2022 and zero from 2023. They see record-high LNG imports and an assumption of a 15% fall in demand in 2023 compared to 2021.
  • They expected LNG imports to rise to about 120 bcm in 2022 and to 155bcm in 2023.
  • The projections show a high level of uncertainty depending on the evolution of the war in Ukraine, timely delivery of LNG and overcoming EU infrastructure bottlenecks.

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