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Flat Services, Weak Manufacturing Pull Q3 GDP into Shallow Contraction

UK
MNI (London)

UK GDP recorded a softer-than-anticipated contraction in Q3, declining by -0.2% q/q.

  • This is an improvement on the -0.5% q/q contraction anticipated by both the consensus and the Bank of England's latest projections. Upwards revisions to July and August data provided the boost.
  • This includes a monthly fall of -0.6% m/m in September (worse than -0.4% expected) which includes the additional bank holidays for the Queen's funeral. January 2021 was the last monthly fall of this magnitude.
  • Services, production and construction output all slowed on the quarter. Services recorded a flat output as consumer-facing industries fared badly, driven by a slide in retail. Production declined by -1.5% q/q.
  • Overall, there were no real surprises for the BOE in the data, underlining that the economy slowed markedly in September. It will also highlight for the government the challenges facing the economy ahead of next Thursday's Autumn statement.

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