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Focus On BanRep MPC Meeting Tomorrow

COLOMBIA
  • The domestic data calendar remains empty today, with focus on tomorrow’s BanRep MPC meeting, when the central bank is expected to accelerate the pace of rate cuts. A majority of analysts are looking for a 50bp move to 12.25%, with risks skewed towards a slightly larger cut.
  • A further decline of inflation and inflation expectations means that real rates have risen since the last meeting, which along with weak activity supports the case for a larger rate move. The continued divergence of views among the committee, however, means that the decision is unlikely to be unanimous.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • USDCOP remains close to YTD lows, as the Colombian peso continues to be anchored by high real yields and the recovery in the WTI oil price in recent weeks. Real yields will remain attractive vs. peers even if a 50bp cut is delivered tomorrow, and it may take a faster pace of easing to put pressure on the peso, which some analysts see occurring later in Q2.
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