Focus On Johnson, Biden Meets Congressional Leaders To Discuss Supplemental

15:15 ET 20:15 GMT: President Biden holds a key meeting with Congressional leaders today - inserting himself into complex two-track negotiations on the US-Mexico border the USD$110 billion supplemental funding package for Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan.

• Despite a recent dip in enthusiasm for foreign policy spending, White House believes there is still bipartisan support for Biden's supplemental in Congress. NSA Jake Sullivan told WEF yesterday that he's that confident Congress will, "after a lot of twists and turns, ultimately get there.”
• Biden’s job is to convince House Speaker Johnson that funding Ukraine is a critical national security priority - a WH message which has failed to resonate with rank-and-file conservative lawmakers.
• Johnson has pivoted away from opposition to Ukraine aid since assuming the speaker’s gavel but remains committed to a hardline position on the US-Mexico border.
• Johnson likely sees the border as a political vulnerability for Democrats and one from which greater concessions can be extracted but puts him in conflict with Senate GOP, who argue that a bipartisan deal is their best chance to enact border policy change as, even if Republicans win Senate and WH in Nov, they couldn't overcome a Democrat filibuster.
• Calling the meeting, the first since May, suggests Biden may have something substantial to offer Johnson or, by isolating Johnson with a highly experienced politicos, it could be to exert pressure on the inexperienced speaker.
• Assuming a border framework isn't announced, Johnson's comments will be closely scrutinsed for signs of a pathway for the supp. through the House.