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Focus on Next Wk's FOMC, BOE Policy Announcements

US TSYS

Inside session range for Tsys after the bell, curves steeper with short end outperforming all day, Modest volumes (TYZ2<1.1M) going into the weekend (London out for Queen's funeral Mon), FOMC annc Wed (75bp hike widely expected), BoE Thu.

  • Trading desks posited large steepener/curve flattener unwinds in play, boosted early volumes. Tsys 2s10s bounces off lowest/inverted levels since mid-August: -47.406 to -40.487, while 5s30s bear steepened to -17.687 high from -22.574 low.
  • Earlier UofM preliminary Sept print confirming the larger than expected bounce into Aug. Current conditions small miss, expectations small beat. 1Y inflation expectations as expected, down 20bps to 4.6% for lowest since Sep'21.
  • Meanwhile 5-10Y inflation surprisingly dips a tenth to 2.8%, lowest since Jul'21, after two months at 2.9% as it continues to slowly move lower from the June 3.1% peak, but within the range of recent revisions come the final print.
  • No obvious headline driver for move to early session low (30YY taps 3.5459% high) in early trade while SPX ratcheted lower as well, ESZ2 marking 3855.25 low by midmorning.
  • Current cross-asset levels: Stocks weaker but off lows heading into triple witching expiration w/ESZ2 at 3890.0 (-29.25), Crude firmer (WTI +0.17 at 85.27) as is Gold (1674.78 +9.59).
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