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Focus On Wednesday’s April CPI

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The highlights of the week include Tuesday’s retail sales and Wednesday’s CPI for April. After the RBA revised up its 2024 headline and trimmed mean CPI forecasts, there is likely to be even more scrutiny of inflation data. Bloomberg consensus expects it to ease 0.1pp to 3.4% but it is worth noting that the first month of the quarter does not include updated services components, the sector the RBA is principally concerned about.

  • On Tuesday, April retail sales print and are forecast to rise 0.3% m/m after falling 0.4%. Sales have been weak as households cut back on discretionary spending to afford essentials.
  • Westpac’s leading index for April is also on Wednesday and is signalling below trend growth into H2 2024.
  • Q1 data continue this week after retail sales volumes posted a 0.4% q/q decline. Construction is on Wednesday and projected to rise 0.5% q/q after 0.7% in Q4 and private capex is released Thursday with expectations at +0.7% q/q (Q4 0.8%). GDP prints on June 5.
  • April building approvals are published on Thursday and consensus expects a 1.5% m/m rise after 1.9% the previous month.
  • On Thursday RBA assistant governor (economic) speaks at the Australasian Investor Relations Annual Conference at 0850AEST.
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The highlights of the week include Tuesday’s retail sales and Wednesday’s CPI for April. After the RBA revised up its 2024 headline and trimmed mean CPI forecasts, there is likely to be even more scrutiny of inflation data. Bloomberg consensus expects it to ease 0.1pp to 3.4% but it is worth noting that the first month of the quarter does not include updated services components, the sector the RBA is principally concerned about.

  • On Tuesday, April retail sales print and are forecast to rise 0.3% m/m after falling 0.4%. Sales have been weak as households cut back on discretionary spending to afford essentials.
  • Westpac’s leading index for April is also on Wednesday and is signalling below trend growth into H2 2024.
  • Q1 data continue this week after retail sales volumes posted a 0.4% q/q decline. Construction is on Wednesday and projected to rise 0.5% q/q after 0.7% in Q4 and private capex is released Thursday with expectations at +0.7% q/q (Q4 0.8%). GDP prints on June 5.
  • April building approvals are published on Thursday and consensus expects a 1.5% m/m rise after 1.9% the previous month.
  • On Thursday RBA assistant governor (economic) speaks at the Australasian Investor Relations Annual Conference at 0850AEST.