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AUSSIE-KIWI: Following their note Yesterday, Westpac have gone long AUD/NZD at
NZ$1.0655, targeting NZ$1.0900 or higher, with a NZ$0.01 trailing stop at
- Westpac note that "the NZD has outperformed all G10 currencies over the past
four months, and has fully priced a strong set of GDP, CPI, and jobs data, as
well as a less dovish RBNZ. NZD/USD is now 2% above fair value. In contrast,
AUD/USD is 2% below fair value, arguably carrying too much weight from
Australian political risks and the US-China trade war. The RBA is bullish on
growth and will also have taken heart from the uptick in wages growth in Q3.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ is more cautious about the persistence of growth and is
willing to tolerate an inflation overshoot. AUD/NZD short term fair value, based
on yield spreads and relative commodity prices, is NZ$1.12."
- Westpac identifies risks to the position as follows; Global stock markets
continue to fall, failure of Trump-Xi discussion on trade, further weakness in
Australia's housing market & a rebound in NZ's housing market, and in turn,