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FOMC Blackout Period Starts With 50% Probability Of Cut With March

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound overnight increases for meetings later in the year, back to little changed since Friday’s close after its sizeable push higher.
  • Cumulative cuts: 12.5bp for March (unch from Fri), 31.5bp for March (from 32.5bp), 56bp for June and 135bp for Dec.
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) had the last say on Friday before the FOMC’s media blackout, noting it’s “really premature” to think rate cuts “are around the corner”. Policy and the economy are in a good place, allowing the Fed to be patient, with a risk that easing two quickly would be scarring if the Fed doesn’t then reach its 2% inflation goal.

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