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FOMC Decision and Release of SEP at 1900BST/1400ET

FED
  • All eyes on the upcoming FOMC decision, summary of economic projections and Chair Powell’s press conference. The much-softer-than-expected May CPI reading is likely to impact the messaging from the Fed meeting - albeit the impact could be subtle.
    • FOMC members will have submitted their economic projections prior to the start of the June meeting, but as Chair Powell noted in Dec 2022 after an inflation print came out on the day before the decision, "just a matter of practice, the SEP reflects any data...that comes out during the meeting."
    • This will probably be the portion of the meeting that is most impacted by the May CPI report, and in particular Powell's characterization of how the FOMC views the recent data.
  • The USD index sits 0.82% in the red and has been consolidating the post-CPI weakness as we approach the decision. For USDMXN, we have seen a decent reversal after a couple attempts at the psychological 19.00 mark, with the pair now just 0.65% higher on the day.
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