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FOMC Minutes: Eyeing 50bp Support, And "A Lot Of Detail" On A Pause

FED

The February FOMC meeting minutes (released 1400ET/1900GMT on Feb 22) could be the most interesting edition in a while.

  • Data and Fed commentary since the February 1 decision have put focus on whether participants thought the Fed could go "higher for longer" than they thought at the December meeting / eyed a potential return to a 50bp hike pace in future if needed / and/or supported a 50bp hike at the February meeting.
  • It's unlikely the Fed was very close to hiking 50bp three weeks ago (they instead dropped the hike pace to 25bp in a unanimous vote). But we now know that at least two non-voting participants (Mester and Bullard) were proponents of continuing 50bp hikes, and it's possible there were more.
  • In addition to tightening prospects, criteria for a pause in the hiking cycle will also be a major focus: when asked in the post-meeting press conference whether the FOMC discussed the conditions for a pause, Chair Powell said "the minutes will come out in three weeks, and we’ll give you a lot of detail...really talking quite a bit about the path forward".
  • With the updated March Dot Plot revisions coming up, it could be interesting to see how FOMC members saw developments since the December meeting. Any assessment of evolving financial conditions in this regard will be especially worth noting.
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