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NEW ZEALAND: Food Prices Surge In January, But We May See Some Payback

NEW ZEALAND
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New Zealand food prices rose 1.9%m/m in Jan, versus a 0.1% m/m gain in Dec. This is the highest rise since mid 2022 in m/m terms. We tend to see higher prices at the start of the year, so we may see some downside payback as Q1 unfolds, see the chart below

  • Stats NZ noted "Higher prices for grocery food contributed the most to the January 2025 increase, with higher prices for boxed chocolates, milk, and chocolate blocks." It also stated: "Higher prices for fruit and vegetables, up 2.8 percent, also contributed to the monthly increase in food prices. When adjusted for seasonal effects, fruit and vegetable prices were down 0.6 percent."
  • An excise tax on tobacco, also took effect from Jan 1 of this year. This segment rose 2.4% m/m.
  • In terms of the other detail, petrol (up 4% m/m) and diesel prices rose, but air travel fell. Accommodation services gained 1.9%m/m, only partially reversing Dec's -4.6% decline.
  • In y/y terms, food prices rose 2.3%y/y, while petrol rose to 1.2%y/y ending a run of negative prints for this segment. 

Fig 1: NZ Food Prices M/M 

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New Zealand food prices rose 1.9%m/m in Jan, versus a 0.1% m/m gain in Dec. This is the highest rise since mid 2022 in m/m terms. We tend to see higher prices at the start of the year, so we may see some downside payback as Q1 unfolds, see the chart below

  • Stats NZ noted "Higher prices for grocery food contributed the most to the January 2025 increase, with higher prices for boxed chocolates, milk, and chocolate blocks." It also stated: "Higher prices for fruit and vegetables, up 2.8 percent, also contributed to the monthly increase in food prices. When adjusted for seasonal effects, fruit and vegetable prices were down 0.6 percent."
  • An excise tax on tobacco, also took effect from Jan 1 of this year. This segment rose 2.4% m/m.
  • In terms of the other detail, petrol (up 4% m/m) and diesel prices rose, but air travel fell. Accommodation services gained 1.9%m/m, only partially reversing Dec's -4.6% decline.
  • In y/y terms, food prices rose 2.3%y/y, while petrol rose to 1.2%y/y ending a run of negative prints for this segment. 

Fig 1: NZ Food Prices M/M 

Keep reading...Show less