Forces Establish Kursk 'Buffer Zone', But Russians Gaining In Donbas

While Ukrainian forces continue to advance into Russia's Kursk oblast, the situation on the main front in the war - in Ukraine's eastern Donbas - continues to develop in Russia's favour. Over the past 24 hours, the leader of the military gov't of the city of Pokrovsk Serhii Dobriak has ordered the evacuation of the city and its surrounding villages.

• As the FT notes, the incursion into Kursk "has yet to deliver one crucial objective: diverting Russia’s manpower and easing pressure in the hottest battlefields in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow is steadily advancing. Russian soldiers are still grinding their way through Ukrainian defences, capturing villages and towns and bringing Moscow closer to its stated goal of complete control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine."
• The lack of Russian re-deployment would seem to stand in contrast to Ukrainian forces, which were already stretched along the frontlines in Donetsk as well as around Kharkiv. The shifting of an estimated 20 military units to the Kursk frontline could have significant implications for the remaining Ukrainian troops' ability to hold on in the east.
• The establishment of a 'buffer zone' as well as the capture of a large number of Russian PoWs could prove sufficient for Ukraine to wind down its offensive operations, potentially requiring fewer troops to be deployed in Kursk than would be the case if Ukraine continued to seek territorial gains.

Map of Frontlines In Russo-Ukraine War

Source: FT, AEI's Critical Threats Project, Institute for the Study of War. Updated Aug 19 1800BST