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FOREX: A$ & NZD Outperform Against Yen, To Fresh Multi Month Highs

FOREX
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The USD has given back part of Wednesday's gains in the first part of Thursday trade. The BBDXY index was last near 1268.3, off close to 0.15%. Gains have been dominated by AUD and NZD.

  • AUD/USD was last near 0.6620/25, up 0.80%. Note early highs from yesterday, pre US-election results, were around 0.6645, so we aren't too far away from those levels. NZD/USD was close to 0.5980/85 in latest dealings.
  • We saw Hong Kong and China equities rebound from early losses. The HSI last up +1.1%, CSI 300 up 0.7%. The real estate index is up nearly 2%. We should hear more about the local government debt relief tomorrow post the NPC meeting.
  • Iron ore and copper are both tracking slightly higher.
  • China trade data saw exports surge, but imports were -2.3%y/y, close to expectations, with key commodity imports all down m/m.
  • USD/JPY has drifted lower as the session has progressed, last near 154.10, off 0.35%. We had a step up in verbal FX rhetoric from FX diplomat Mimura, including that they will take appropriate action against excessive moves. Still, yen only really started moving this afternoon, with these earlier FX comments not providing lasting support.
  • US yields have also ticked down, but losses are less than 1bps for the most part at this stage.
  • Japan Sep labor earnings were below market expectations, but trends remain positive.
  • NZD/JPY has broken above 92.00, getting back to fresh highs since July. AUD/JPY has pushed above 102.00.
  • The Fed decision is announced today followed by a press conference with a 25bp rate cut forecast (see MNI Fed Preview). Preliminary Q3 US productivity/ULC, jobless claims and September consumer credit are also released.
  • The BoE also announces and 25bp of easing is expected. In addition, September German trade & IP, Q3 French employment and September euro area retail sales print. BoE’s Bailey speaks as well as the ECB’s Lane, Buch, Schnabel and Elderson.
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The USD has given back part of Wednesday's gains in the first part of Thursday trade. The BBDXY index was last near 1268.3, off close to 0.15%. Gains have been dominated by AUD and NZD.

  • AUD/USD was last near 0.6620/25, up 0.80%. Note early highs from yesterday, pre US-election results, were around 0.6645, so we aren't too far away from those levels. NZD/USD was close to 0.5980/85 in latest dealings.
  • We saw Hong Kong and China equities rebound from early losses. The HSI last up +1.1%, CSI 300 up 0.7%. The real estate index is up nearly 2%. We should hear more about the local government debt relief tomorrow post the NPC meeting.
  • Iron ore and copper are both tracking slightly higher.
  • China trade data saw exports surge, but imports were -2.3%y/y, close to expectations, with key commodity imports all down m/m.
  • USD/JPY has drifted lower as the session has progressed, last near 154.10, off 0.35%. We had a step up in verbal FX rhetoric from FX diplomat Mimura, including that they will take appropriate action against excessive moves. Still, yen only really started moving this afternoon, with these earlier FX comments not providing lasting support.
  • US yields have also ticked down, but losses are less than 1bps for the most part at this stage.
  • Japan Sep labor earnings were below market expectations, but trends remain positive.
  • NZD/JPY has broken above 92.00, getting back to fresh highs since July. AUD/JPY has pushed above 102.00.
  • The Fed decision is announced today followed by a press conference with a 25bp rate cut forecast (see MNI Fed Preview). Preliminary Q3 US productivity/ULC, jobless claims and September consumer credit are also released.
  • The BoE also announces and 25bp of easing is expected. In addition, September German trade & IP, Q3 French employment and September euro area retail sales print. BoE’s Bailey speaks as well as the ECB’s Lane, Buch, Schnabel and Elderson.