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FOREX: NZD Rebounds Post RBNZ, USD/JPY Tracking Towards 200-day MA Support

FOREX
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The main focus today has been the NZD bounce post the RBNZ's 50bps cut. Yen has also continued to rally. Trends elsewhere have been relative steady. The USD BBDXY is little changed, last near 1287.3, off a touch versus end NY levels from Tuesday. 

  • NZD/USD got to highs of 0.5882, post the as expected 50bps RBNZ cut. The statement implied further cuts into 2025, but not as much as the market had priced pre the meeting.
  • We did see a brief NZD/USD pull back during the press conference as RBNZ Governor Orr stressed the central bank was now projecting more cuts compared to the August review. Still, NZ rates are higher for session., +4-10bps for swap rates. NZD/USD was last near 0.5865, up close to 0.50% for the session. We are still some distance from resistance at 0.5915/0.5920 (20-day EMA/Nov 20 highs) though.
  • AUD/USD sits unchanged at this stage, last at 0.6475. The Oct monthly CPI print was mixed, headline softer, but core re-accelerating in y/y terms.
  • USD/JPY continues to track lower, last near 152.30, off around 0.50% for the session. This continues Tuesday's outperformance theme. There has been no fresh major macro news today. On-going speculation around a Dec hike is likely helping (amid supportive domestic services inflation and likely firm wage gains again next year). The simple 200-day MA isn't far away at 152.00. The 50-day EMA is at 151.50.
  • In the cross asset space, US equity futures are slightly lower, while regional equities are mixed. US yields sit down a touch, so likely benefiting the yen at the margins.
  • Later revised US Q3 GDP, jobless claims, November MNI Chicago PMI, preliminary October durable orders, October trade, personal income/spending & PCE price indices print. The ECB’s Lane speaks.
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The main focus today has been the NZD bounce post the RBNZ's 50bps cut. Yen has also continued to rally. Trends elsewhere have been relative steady. The USD BBDXY is little changed, last near 1287.3, off a touch versus end NY levels from Tuesday. 

  • NZD/USD got to highs of 0.5882, post the as expected 50bps RBNZ cut. The statement implied further cuts into 2025, but not as much as the market had priced pre the meeting.
  • We did see a brief NZD/USD pull back during the press conference as RBNZ Governor Orr stressed the central bank was now projecting more cuts compared to the August review. Still, NZ rates are higher for session., +4-10bps for swap rates. NZD/USD was last near 0.5865, up close to 0.50% for the session. We are still some distance from resistance at 0.5915/0.5920 (20-day EMA/Nov 20 highs) though.
  • AUD/USD sits unchanged at this stage, last at 0.6475. The Oct monthly CPI print was mixed, headline softer, but core re-accelerating in y/y terms.
  • USD/JPY continues to track lower, last near 152.30, off around 0.50% for the session. This continues Tuesday's outperformance theme. There has been no fresh major macro news today. On-going speculation around a Dec hike is likely helping (amid supportive domestic services inflation and likely firm wage gains again next year). The simple 200-day MA isn't far away at 152.00. The 50-day EMA is at 151.50.
  • In the cross asset space, US equity futures are slightly lower, while regional equities are mixed. US yields sit down a touch, so likely benefiting the yen at the margins.
  • Later revised US Q3 GDP, jobless claims, November MNI Chicago PMI, preliminary October durable orders, October trade, personal income/spending & PCE price indices print. The ECB’s Lane speaks.