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FOREX: USD Softens With Lower Trump Election Odds

FOREX
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The USD BBDXY and DXY indices are both off around 0.60% in the first part of Monday dealings. The BBDXY index is around 1256, still above the 20-day EMA support zone (near 1253.4). We haven't been sub this support point since the start of October. 

  • Weekend polling showing the tightness of the US Presidential race, particularly in the swing states, has trimmed Trump's election odds. In turn this has reduced reflation theme appeal and weighed on USD appetite.
  • Yen was the strongest performer at one stage. but AUD, NZD, NOK and SEK have all largely caught up now. USD/JPY got to lows of 151.60, but now sits slightly higher, last 151.80/85. oct 25 lows at 151.46 remain intact for now.
  • US Tsy futures rallied at the open (there has been no cash Tsy trading today due to a Japan holiday), but follow through hasn't transpired. We were last comfortably within Friday ranges.
  • US equity futures were weaker at the open but sit back in positive territory now. Bitcoin has also been supported on dips, despite being another favoured Trump related trade, although Bitcoin is comfortably off recent highs.
  • AUD/USD has rallied b around 0.75%, last in the 0.6605/10 region, while NZD/USD is up by close to same amount, last near 0.6010.
  • For the A$ the Sep 11 low at 0.6622 is a near term upside resistance point.
  • Oil prices are up, supported by OPEC’s decision to delay its unwinding of output reductions by a month to the end of December as well as threatening comments from Iran.
  • Later US September orders and European October manufacturing PMIs print. ECB’s Elderson, McCaul and Buch make appearances and the eurogroup meeting also takes place. Key events for crude though are Tuesday’s US election and this week’s meeting of China’s legislature standing committee, which may result in further stimulus.
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The USD BBDXY and DXY indices are both off around 0.60% in the first part of Monday dealings. The BBDXY index is around 1256, still above the 20-day EMA support zone (near 1253.4). We haven't been sub this support point since the start of October. 

  • Weekend polling showing the tightness of the US Presidential race, particularly in the swing states, has trimmed Trump's election odds. In turn this has reduced reflation theme appeal and weighed on USD appetite.
  • Yen was the strongest performer at one stage. but AUD, NZD, NOK and SEK have all largely caught up now. USD/JPY got to lows of 151.60, but now sits slightly higher, last 151.80/85. oct 25 lows at 151.46 remain intact for now.
  • US Tsy futures rallied at the open (there has been no cash Tsy trading today due to a Japan holiday), but follow through hasn't transpired. We were last comfortably within Friday ranges.
  • US equity futures were weaker at the open but sit back in positive territory now. Bitcoin has also been supported on dips, despite being another favoured Trump related trade, although Bitcoin is comfortably off recent highs.
  • AUD/USD has rallied b around 0.75%, last in the 0.6605/10 region, while NZD/USD is up by close to same amount, last near 0.6010.
  • For the A$ the Sep 11 low at 0.6622 is a near term upside resistance point.
  • Oil prices are up, supported by OPEC’s decision to delay its unwinding of output reductions by a month to the end of December as well as threatening comments from Iran.
  • Later US September orders and European October manufacturing PMIs print. ECB’s Elderson, McCaul and Buch make appearances and the eurogroup meeting also takes place. Key events for crude though are Tuesday’s US election and this week’s meeting of China’s legislature standing committee, which may result in further stimulus.