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Forint Continues to Outperform Peers Post-NBH, EURHUF Approaches Initial Support

HUF
  • The forint sits second to only the South African rand at the top of the EMEA leaderboard today, outperforming the Polish zloty and Czech koruna for the second consecutive day amid a less-dovish NBH policy mix.
  • The cross traded to a low of 394.35 earlier today, closely matching initial support at 394.30, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average could signal scope for a more sustained move lower toward the 50-day EMA.
  • As expected, the NBH cut its base rate by 75bps yesterday, though many analysts had flagged risk of an even smaller 50bp cut. The Bank reiterated in its policy statement that a “careful” approach is warranted in the coming months but refrained from offering firm guidance over its rate path. The downward revisions to the 2024 inflation estimates were expected given CPI has crossed below forecast for much of this year.
  • Domestic unemployment rate and current account data did not move the needle this morning. Average gross wage data tomorrow morning will likely show wage growth remained at elevated levels in January (Est: +14.0% Y/Y; Prior: +16.0%).
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