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Forint Lacks Directionality Amid Few Local Drivers, Attention Turns to Global Risk Events

HUF
The forint, like its Polish zloty and Czech koruna peers, is little changed against the euro on the day amid few risk events of note in the CE3 region. With moves across G10 FX muted and global risk sentiment little changed, EURHUF price action in either direction has lacked any follow through. Attention will therefore turn to the release of the Fed minutes later today, while tomorrow’s average wage data (Est: +13.8% y/y) is the next local release of note.
  • EURHUF briefly traded to as low as 387.19 earlier in the session, before swiftly reverting higher at the start of European trade. Ranges remain relatively narrow with this week’s total losses amounting to just 0.2%, and as such, the short-term outlook remains bullish with key support at 384.64 – the 50-day EMA – some way off. Upside focus falls on 390.49, the Jan 30 high.
  • The forint has lacked very few domestic drivers this week, with last week’s weakness largely attributable to the poor Q4-2023 GDP data and recent inflation figures - both of which will strengthen the case for an acceleration of the rate cut pace at the Feb 27 NBH meeting.
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