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Forint Lags Regional Peers, PLNHUF Pierces Above 90.00

HUF
While EURHUF ranges are narrow on the day with price action in either direction lacking any meaningful follow-through, the forint is nevertheless underperforming its CE3 peers. Most notably, PLNHUF has pierced above the 90.00 handle, placing the cross within close proximity to the Feb 09 all-time high of 90.20. Today’s gains extend the bounce from the mid-Jan YTD lows to 4.5%, with the 14-day RSI approaching the ‘overbought’ 70-threshold (currently 65.8). Meanwhile, CZKHUF remains close to yesterday’s 21-month low of 15.2370.
  • For EURHUF, the aforementioned narrow intraday ranges mean a familiar technical picture remains in play. Resistance to watch is found at 390.49, the Jan 30 high. A clearance this level could signal scope for an extension higher toward 394.67, the Aug 03 2023 high. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA at 384.55 is required to instead reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Looking ahead, average gross wage data (Est: +13.8% y/y; Prior: +13.9%) and unemployment rate figures (Est: 4.3%; Prior: 4.2%) are the highlights on the local slate this week.
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