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Forint Underperforms Regional Peers as This Week’s NBH Minutes Eyed for Dovish Dissenters

HUF
Single currency weakness since the start of the European session has provided a headwind to the euro-proxy forint, which is underperforming compared to its regional peers at the margins. EURHUF is 0.1% firmer on the day at typing, though still below the overnight highs. Given the relatively narrow ranges for EURHUF today, familiar technical levels remain in play. A continuation higher would open 390.49, the Jan 30 high, while key support is marked at 383.47, the 50-day EMA.
  • Looking ahead, the release of the January NBH meeting minutes will be closely watched on Wednesday after Deputy Governor Virag said the 75bp cut was not made unanimously. The last time the council’s minutes reflected any dissent was in May 2016. Preliminary GDP data for Q4 will also cross Wednesday morning (Est: +0.6% y/y; Prior -0.4%).
  • While the resignation of Katalin Novak and Judit Varga is the most notable story over the weekend, political fallout for Orban will likely be limited due to the speedy nature of the resignations - nonetheless, a replacement for Varga will need to be found - as she'd been widely touted to lead the Fidesz party at the upcoming European elections.
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