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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Lee Anderson MP, a former deputy chairman of the governing centre-right Conservative Party, has joined the right-wing populist Reform UK in a move that does not have any immediate market impact but could further increase pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Anderson, having previously served as a local councillor for the centre-left Labour Party, won the 'red wall' seat of Ashfield in 2019 becoming the seat's first Conservative MP since 1979.
- An outspoken social conservative, Anderson was made co-Deputy Chairman of the Conservatives in Feb 2023 before resigining in Jan 2024 in order to vote for a backbench amendment to the Safety of Rwanda Bill. He subsequently lost the Conservative whip in Feb having alleged that 'Islamists' controlled London through Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan.
- The political outlook for Sunak was already difficult amid a ~20% polling deficit behind Labour and a lukewarm public reaction to last week's Budget statement. The defection of one MP to Reform UK will be viewed as potentially opening the door to other disaffected Conservatives, especially if former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage begins to play a more prominent role in the party.
- There remains speculation that Sunak could call an early election for 2 May to avoid any further declines in support. We believe this an unlikely scenario, with the more likely outcome being an election in Q424/Jan 2025 giving the gov't the maximum amount of time to reverse its fortunes. Betting markets agree, with a 76% implied probabilty of a Q424 vote according to Smarkets.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Date of General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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