Fragmented Constitutional Convention Vote Makes For Uncertain Outlook

The Chilean electorate delivered a major rebuke to the country's major political parties in yesterday's election of 155 members of the constitutional convention, which is set to draft a new constitution over the course of the next year.

• The governing centre-right Chile Vamos coalition won just 39 seats with 90% of the vote counted, well short of the 52 seats required to form a blocking minority. Chile Vamos was beaten into second place by groups of independent candidates, which won an overall plurality of 46 seats.
• The election was also a poor one for the centre-left Lista del Apruebo alliance, which includes the Socialist Party and the Party for Democracy. The list won just 25 seats, putting it behind the far-left Apruebo Dignidad, which included the Communist Party of Chile, on 28 seats.
• The policy outlook is clouded by the fact that no single group has reached the 52-seat blocking minority (one-third of the seats in the convention) that can block proposals from being introduced into the constitution. This could risk more extreme positions on issues such as natural resources and financial institutions being introduced into the constitutional mix.
• Moreover, the large number of independents are not necessarily all of the same political ilk, meaning it is difficult to predict what sort of proposals they may seek to introduce into the new constitution.
• The constitutional convention vote could also bode poorly for the main moderate political alliances ahead of the presidential and legislative election due to take place in November of this year. The main parties are yet to select their candidates, but early opinion polling already shows strong support for some of the more overt leftist candidates who have declared.