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France Leads Losses on High Wind, Steady Nuclear

POWER

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both declined, with France moving down at a quicker pace amid higher wind load factors compared to Germany coupled with stable nuclear capacity.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €92.11/MWh from €108.20/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €56.70/MWh from €87.78/MWh on the previous day.
  • German wind is expected at just 7.91GW, or a 12% load factor on 20 August and will rise the next day to a 29% load factor – which could drop prices lower from the previous day. And over 22-23 August wind will at 19-24% load factors – possibly keeping downward pressure on costs.
  • German power demand over 20-21 August was revised down by 74-330MW on the day, with Demand forecasts between 53.3-53.6GW over the period.
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at 4.52GW, or a 23% load factor on 20 August, falling to a 16% load factor the next day, which could narrow the FR discount to Germany amid lower wind load factors.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 67% as of Monday morning – unchanged from 16 August, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Max temperatures in Paris are anticipated at 24.5C on 20 August, with temperatures increasing to as high as 25.7-26.4C over 22-23 August – which spur cooling demand.
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