Fresh YTD Lows For USD/IDR, Holiday For Most In The Region On Monday

Asian FX has been mixed, with KRW and TWD underperforming, with some spill over from higher USD/JPY levels post BoJ. CNH has been more resilient as equities continue to recover. In SEA, PHP and IDR have outperformed. USD/IDR printing fresh YTD lows. Still to come is Taiwan Q1 GDP, which is expected to be negative send the economy into a technical recession. On Sunday Apr PMIs print for China. In South Korea Apr trade figures are out on Monday.

• Note though China markets are closed for the May day holidays Mon-Wed. South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong are also shut on Monday, along with the other major countries in the region.
• USD/CNH is back to 6.9200, slightly firmer in CNH terms for the session and outperforming the stronger USD tone post the BoJ in terms of the majors. Onshore equities are higher for the second straight session, with the CSI 300 back above its 200-day MA.
• KRW has underperformed, although spot USD/KRW did find selling interest above 1340 post the BoJ decision (which saw USD/JPY spike towards 135.00). Onshore South Korean equities have also underperformed. Earlier IP momentum in March, but from low levels.
• USD/TWD is holding close to recent highs, above 30.70. We are very close tot eh 200-day MA (30.725). Q1 GDP is expected to have contracted -1.25%, based off the consensus, putting Taiwan in a technical recession (Q4 growth was -0.41%).
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is a touch firmer this morning however we remain well within post MAS ranges. We currently sit ~1% below the top of the band. USD/SGD prints at $1.3340/50, the pair has been dealing in a narrow range this week as $1.34 has capped rallies and the 20-Day EMA ($1.3334) has provided support. The March Unemployment rate printed at 1.8% ticking lower from 2.0% in December. This is the lowest Unemployment rate since March 2015.
• Spot USD/IDR sits slightly above session lows. The pair last at 14640/45. We touched 14638 earlier, which was a fresh YTD low. The market may now target round figure support at 14600. Note that lows in the pair from early June last year came in just ahead of 14400. Late yesterday it was reported that exporters placed $156.5mn into FX term deposits with the central bank. This is the largest amount since the policy was introduced a few months ago.
• USD/PHP is back close to mid-Mar lows, last in the 55.50/55 region. The pair has unwound nearly half of the rally we saw in the first 3 weeks of Apr (54.30/35 to 56.35/40). For today, spot is +0.35% firmer in PHP terms, with some gains pared due to higher USD/JPY levels. Mid-April lows came in close to 55.00, which could be the next level watched on the downside.