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Front Rates Help 2Y Tsy Yields To Post-CPI High

STIR
  • After initially very little reaction to the mixed US PMIs, Fed Funds implied rates have since drifted higher for now up to 1.5bp higher for 2H24 since the data, aided also by a bounce in WTI (back to earlier levels).
  • The move builds on the post-Thanksgiving increase earlier on, with 2H24 rates 3.5-4.5bp higher than Wednesday’s close.
  • It helps leave 2Y Tsy yields to joint session highs of 4.9484% and also the highest in the post-CPI period, albeit still off the ~5.03% seen pre-CPI.
  • The PMIs saw surprise service strength but within the details showing aggregate headcounts were cut for first time since June 2020, helped limit the reaction to the on balance stronger than expected data.

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