Full Reversal In EURNOK

EURNOK trades near intraday highs, 0.5% higher at 11.5925 and around 1% above today's post-Norges Bank low of 11.4895.

• The cross nonetheless remains within the bull channel top drawn from the Dec 27 '23 low (which is at 11.6034 today).
• NOK initially strengthened following the Norges Bank's decision, with the revised rate path more hawkish than some analysts had expected.
• However, that move quickly reversed and the NOK is now near the bottom of the G10 leaderboard (only stronger than the GBP and CHF, which both had their own dovish central bank decisions today).
• In the press conference, Governor Wolden-Bache confirmed that the first rate cut of 2024 would likely come at the September meeting (rather than November or December), which may have pressured the NOK.
• However, today's USD recovery has seemingly driven price action across currency markets, and has also fed through to oil markets, with Brent crude futures 0.6% lower.
• Tomorrow sees the release of March unemployment claims data, expected at 2.0% (vs 1.9% prior). Norges Bank expects Q1 unemployment to be 1.91% (from today's MPR), so a 2.0% reading in March would be consistent with that projection.