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JGBS: Futures At Cheaps, Curve Twist-Flattening, 20Y Supply Tomorrow

JGBS
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JGB futures are weaker, -24 compared to the settlement levels, and at session lows.

  • Japan's preliminary Q4 GDP was above market expectations. Q3 also saw positive revisions. The q/q annualized outcome was +2.8% versus 1.1% forecast. In q/q terms, this was 0.7% (0.3% was forecast, while Q3 was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3% originally reported).
  • December industrial production was revised down to -0.2% in the final report, while the operating ratio fell to 102.4 in December compared to 102.6 in the previous month. December’s Tertiary Industry Index rose 0.1% m/m.
  • “Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities revises its forecasts higher on Japanese bond yields to reflect recent market moves, strategists including Koichi Sugisaki write in a note.” (see BBG link)
  • Cash US tsys are closed for the Presidents Day holiday.  TYH4 is slightly weaker.
  • Cash JGBs are 2bps cheaper to 1bp richer, with a flattening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps higher at 1.374% versus the cycle high of 1.377%.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher. Swap spreads are wider.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside 20-year supply.
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JGB futures are weaker, -24 compared to the settlement levels, and at session lows.

  • Japan's preliminary Q4 GDP was above market expectations. Q3 also saw positive revisions. The q/q annualized outcome was +2.8% versus 1.1% forecast. In q/q terms, this was 0.7% (0.3% was forecast, while Q3 was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3% originally reported).
  • December industrial production was revised down to -0.2% in the final report, while the operating ratio fell to 102.4 in December compared to 102.6 in the previous month. December’s Tertiary Industry Index rose 0.1% m/m.
  • “Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities revises its forecasts higher on Japanese bond yields to reflect recent market moves, strategists including Koichi Sugisaki write in a note.” (see BBG link)
  • Cash US tsys are closed for the Presidents Day holiday.  TYH4 is slightly weaker.
  • Cash JGBs are 2bps cheaper to 1bp richer, with a flattening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps higher at 1.374% versus the cycle high of 1.377%.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher. Swap spreads are wider.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside 20-year supply.